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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review - November 23, 2017
 

I. Yesterday’s News
International News

1. Many Federal Reserve policymakers expect that interest rates will have to be raised in the "near term," according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting released on Wednesday. The readout from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting also showed policymakers generally agreed the economy was poised for strong growth. Several Fed officials also saw improved chances that the U.S. Congress would pass significant tax cuts that would boost business investment. While some policymakers said they still needed to see more data before deciding the timing of a rate hike, many of the officials said the jobless rate appeared to be too low for inflation to remain at its current weak level.

2. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October after three straight months of hefty gains, but a sustained increase in shipments pointed to robust business investment and economic momentum as the year winds down. In a separate report on Wednesday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 13,000. The economy's prospects were bolstered by the data. Strong business investment and tightening labor market conditions will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates next month. Prices for U.S. Treasuries rose marginally in thin trading ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street were little changed near record highs as a retreat in technology stocks was offset by a jump in crude prices.

3. Brexit-bound Britain slashed its economic growth forecasts and ramped up its borrowing plans going into the 2020s, but finance minister Philip Hammond announced a number of spending steps aimed at winning back voters. He also committed 44 billion pounds ($58 billion) - 15 billion of it new money - over five years to deliver 300,000 new homes a year by the mid-2020s, addressing Britain's acute housing shortage. Sterling initially fell as Hammond announced the gloomy forecasts for the economy, but rose later to hit a three-week high against the U.S. Dollar. Britain's budget forecasters now expect gross domestic product will grow by 1.5 percent in 2017, compared with a forecast of 2.0 percent made in March, reflecting a slowdown this year as the Brexit vote weighed. The Office for Budget Responsibility also cut its GDP growth forecasts in 2019 and 2020 to 1.3 percent in both years, down from 1.7 and 1.9 percent previously. For 2021 and 2022, economic growth was still seen weak at 1.5 and 1.6 percent respectively.

4. The U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday said it had made a final determination that anti-subsidy duties should be imposed on tool chests imported from China. The department said in a statement it would slap final anti-subsidy duties on Chinese exporters of the tool chests ranging from 14.03 percent to 95.96 percent. The duties will take effect for five years if the U.S. International Trade Commission finds the imports harm or are likely to harm U.S. producers. The commission is scheduled to make its decision around Jan. 8 next year.

5. Robert Mugabe resigned as Zimbabwe's president on Tuesday a week after the army and his former political allies moved against him, ending four decades of rule by a man who turned from independence hero to archetypal African strongman. Zimbabwe's former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa will be sworn in as president on Wednesday or Thursday, Zanu-PF legal secretary Patrick Chinamasa told Reuters after the resignation of Robert Mugabe. Separately, Zanu-PF chief whip Lovemore Matuke told Reuters that Mnangagwa would be sworn in within 48 hours and that he would serve the remainder of Mugabe's term until the next general elections, which must be held by September 2018.

Domestic News

5. China will announce measures to do a better job in opening up and providing a more open environment for foreign investors by 'bringing in' and 'going out', introducing a national negative list, and increasing access to foreign investment, said Zhou Xiaofei, deputy secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC). China will also speed up legislature on overseas investment to guide foreign investment, Zhou added.

6. It is learnt that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is selecting the fourth batch of demonstration projects of public-private partnership (PPP) with industrial commissions. In the fourth batch, 1,226 projects from various districts have been applied with investment amount of 2.12 trillion yuan.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market

The dollar fell on Wednesday to its lowest level since October against a basket of major currencies, marking its worst one-day performance in five months. The release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting, weak U.S. data and technical trading aligned to send the dollar tumbling against both safe-haven and risky currencies. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.75 percent, to its lowest since Oct. 20. Against the yen, the dollar fell more than 1 percent, touching its lowest since late September. It was the dollar's largest single day fall against the yen since May. The euro rose to a five-day high against the dollar of $1.1827.

2. Home Market

China's yuan inched up against the U.S. dollar amid relatively balanced forex settlement and decreasing interests from institutional proprietary funds in the morning session. Trading range narrowed down. Yuan is expected to keep consolidation in near term.

Precious Metals

Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the dollar fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve released minutes of its latest meeting. Gold's gains accelerated after the Fed minutes. Spot gold was up at $1,292.05 ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $10.50 an ounce, or 0.8 percent, at $1,292.20 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil

Oil settled at a two-year high Wednesday after the shutdown of one of the largest crude pipelines from Canada cut supply to the United States. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures settled up $1.19, or 2.09 percent, at $58.02 per barrel, the highest since July 2015, on concerns over reduced supplies on the Keystone pipeline and after the American Petroleum Institute (API) late Tuesday reported a 6.4 million-barrel crude drawdown for last week. Brent crude settled up 75 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $63.32 a barrel.

2.Base Metals

LME three-month copper ended 0.7 percent firmer at $6,954 a tonne after touching a two-week high of $6,957.50. LME nickel fell 0.2 percent to close at $11,850 a tonne. LME aluminium climbed 1.2 percent to finish at $2,107 a tonne, lead shed 0.7 percent to $2,463 a tonne and tin, untraded in closing rings, was bid up 0.7 percent at $19,400.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds

U.S. Treasury prices gained slightly after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting on Wednesday affirmed market expectations that it will hike rates in December, with trading volumes subdued before Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. Benchmark 10-year notes gained 10/32 in price to yield 2.32 percent, down from 2.36 percent on Tuesday. The yield curve between two-year notes and 10-year notes held near 10-year lows at 58.5 basis points.

2. Chinese bonds

Yields of CFFEX benchmark 10-year contracts slipped 0.52 percent, paring losses after an over 0.56 percent decline. Bond market tracked due to tightened liquidity, lingering supervision concerns and panic sentiment. Yields of the active 10-year bonds hit a new high since September 2014, 10-year CDB bonds gained over 10 bps, while 10-year Treasury bonds rose almost 5 bps.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities

U.S. stocks were little changed on Wednesday, with telecom services shares among the biggest movers while the energy sector rose in line with gains in crude oil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 64.65 points, or 0.27 percent, to 23,526.18, the S&P 500 lost 1.95 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,597.08 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.88 points, or 0.07 percent, to 6,867.36.

2. Hong Kong Equities

Hong Kong's main Hang Seng index ended above 30,000 points for the first time in 10 years, amid signs Chinese investors are stepping up buying of Hong Kong stocks. China's H-shares index also closed up. At close of trade, the Hang Seng index was up 185.42 points or 0.62 percent at 30,003.49. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index rose 0.71 percent to 11,958.63.

3. China Equities

China’s stocks rose for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, led by heavyweights including banking, coal and steel names. Yesterday’s bellwether, such as brokers, insurance and property sector, lost steam. Shanghai stocks hovered above 3,400, and rose strongly late in the session. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index settled up 19.96 points or 0.59 percent to 3,430.46. The CSI300 closed at 4,227.57, up 0.23 percent.


(2017-11-23)
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